The United States Geological Survey ’s ( USGS ) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory ( HVO ) has , in the past 24 hour , announcedthat that the vent alert point at Kilauea has changed to “ WARNING ” and the air power codification to “ RED ” – so what exactly does this mean ?

There ’s been a lot of misinformation dropped online about this eruption . This has ranged from the queer ( erroneous)connectionbetween the perhaps poorly cite “ Ring of Fire ” and Hawai’i – which is nowhere near say ring – to the alone false melodic theme that a south flankcollapseat Kilauea could make a Pacific - across-the-board tsunami .

The idiom “ red alert ” is quite evocative and select miscommunication fresh fish , so let ’s break it down without any exaggeration . In world-wide , this combined warning signal – which can be applied to a unsubtle range of explosive and effusive eructation styles and volcanoes – means that a “ major volcanic eruption is imminent , afoot , or suspected with hazardous activity both on the ground and in the tune . ”

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The reality is n’t quite so scary , though . The detail behind the awake alteration can be chance on the USGSupdate web site itself : currently , ash tree discharge could increase or decrease in intensity depending on what ’s going on within the conduit at Kilauea ’s summit .

“ At any metre , activity may become more explosive , increasing the intensity of ash production and producing ballistic projectiles near the vent , ” the USGS explains . The phrasal idiom “ more explosive ” does n’t think anything particularly catastrophic , by the way – justmoreexplosive , proportional to its current country .

DrJanine Krippner , a volcanologist at Concord University , told IFLScience that this warning signal “ is an aviation monition because of the ash tree plume that was being produced yesterday . Ash isterrible for planesso USGS has put out this admonition to communicate with them . ”

A lot has happened since theeruptionbegan a few weeks back ; you could discover a elaborated account of the ongoing conflagration at the colossal shield volcano ’s East Rift Zone ( ERZ)here , good manners of the USGS , andhere , good manners of volcanologist Erik Klemetti . In orderliness to put this latest maturation into context , however , here are the relevant highlights .

An outpouring of Kilauea ’s summit lava lake at Halema’uma’u   in late - April was followed a few day later by lava drainage - tie in crater floor collapse at the volcanic conePu’u ‘ O’o , an uptick in seismal natural process , an ash - robust extravasation at Pu’u ‘ O’o , and the emergence of lava - effuse fissures in the nearby Leilani Estates .

At the same time , the lava lake at Halema’uma’u   has drained to such an extent that there has been some concern that the irruption here could become far more explosive .

As the lava here has now go down back into the conduit below the water level , steam is being generate . Right now , rock drop are produce pulsation of vigorous ash emissions . If a rock downslope cylinder block off the conduit , however , this could induce a huge steam - free-base press habitus - up , which could trigger a sizeable blast consanguine to the1924 fit .

A 3D mannequin of the Halema’uma’u crater , created using thermal imagery taken by a chopper on May 8 . HVO

The worry is that this could not only give a prominent blast column , whose ash endanger aviation and those on the ground , but it could further destabilize the geomorphologic unity of the commonwealth rock candy here , causing further life-threatening blockages .

As it befall , over the last few Day , explosive activity at Halema’uma’u has intensified . As of Tuesday , May 15 , ash tree from Halema’uma’u ’s Overlook outlet has risen to as high as 3,660 meters ( around 12,000 feet ) . Volcanic airwave befoulment , or “ vog ” , is drifting over nearby Pahala .

This ash generation is down to these rock falls and the explosive mingling of water and magma down in the conduit . Whether it be through a full closure or just more John Rock fall and water supply - magma interactions , there ’s a chance that the activity here will intensify somewhat .

That ’s why the alert was emerge – out of an abundance of materialistic , well - reason out cautiousness , for those in the tune and on the ground . Do n’t believe the hype : as Krippner stress ( in all caps , originally ) , this will be “ nothing like Mount St. Helens or Krakatau ! ”