Members of NASA , Union delegacy , and external partners are busy this week pretending an asteroid will impact Earth by 2027 . Although the impact is completely fictional , the exercise take into account scientists and civic handmaid to understand what actions may be necessary should a space rock stop up on a collision course with our planet .
On thefirst dayof the group discussion , the squad pretend they had just discovered asteroid 2019 PDC , an aim between 100 and 300 meter ( 330 to 980 foot ) in sizing that will pilot by Earth on May 13 , 2019 , put across at 19 million kilometer ( 12 million miles ) . The object will kibosh being discernible by worldly concern - based telescopes by the ending of the year and will not get close to our satellite until 2027 . At this point , it will have a one in 100 chance of murder Earth .
The team want to offer a phoney but realistic scenario . If this fake asteroid were a realness , it could create ravaging on a continental scale . Given the uncertainty about the object , it could set down on April 29 , 2027 , in a narrow-minded ring that offer from Hawaii to Africa , cross the continental United States .
On thesecond day , the members jumped fore in time to July 29 , 2019 . Now , scientist have honor the aim and noted there is a one in 10 chance of the object slam dance into Earth . They have also refined the asteroid ’s size of it guess to roughly 140 to 260 meters ( 460 to 850 foot ) and determined it is a heap - of - rubble kind of physical object . They also believe they know where it might hit : Denver , Colorado .
If the object were to run into with no monition ( commemorate this is just a pretense ) , over 2 million the great unwashed would be in theunsurvivable zone . The free energy liberate would be tens of thousands of clock time the energy released by an atomic turkey , igniting buildings and making grit explode over 1,300 square kilometre ( 500 satisfying mile ) .
So what can we do ? First up is a reconnaissance mission to understand more about the object , especially its mass . The mission would launch on June 1 , 2021 , and arrive on December 30 of the same yr . During this time , agencies would also work up two more reconnaissance mission missionary work , one with the ability to deploy a nuclear twist to potentially forefend the objective and a second as a nuclear deflector mission .
Thethird daystarts on December 30 , 2021 . Things have change since 2019 . The nuclear machine commission has been hold too controversial both nationwide and internationally . Instead , a single reconnaissance mission will launch in a few months clock time ( spring 2022 ) , with a antecedently launched planetary space vehicle sent to take after 2019 PDC . Six “ energizing impactors ” built by NASA , the European Space Agency , Russia , and China will be establish in mid-2023 .
At this point , the density of the asteroid is still not know , so scientists are uncertain how successful the deflection missionary work will be . For it to succeed , they will have to beget a modification in velocity for an eastbound deflection of 4.5 centimeters per secondly , thus displacing it by about 12,100 km ( 7,520 miles ) and invest it off row . The impactors are scheduled to take billet on the last calendar week ofAugust 2024 , with one of the space vehicle remaining in orbit to find out if they are successful .
Clarence Shepard Day Jr. 4 and 5 will tell us what happens next .
